IAZ043-055-056-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-061100-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-HARRISON-KNOX-MADISON-
MONONA-PIERCE-PLATTE-SHELBY-STANTON-THURSTON-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALBION...BLAIR...CENTER...COLUMBUS...
FREMONT...HARLAN...HARTINGTON...LOGAN...NELIGH...NORFOLK...ONAWA...
PIERCE...SCHUYLER...STANTON...TEKAMAH...THURSTON...WAYNE...WEST 
POINT
950 PM CST THU FEB 5 2004

...WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY...

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND A SMALL PART 
OF WEST CENTRAL IOWA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.  ANOTHER 1 TO 3 
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. 
TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE FROM 8 TO 12 INCHES.

NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SOME 
GUSTS TO 35 MPH THROUGH NOON FRIDAY.  THESE GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL 
CREATE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SUNRISE.

THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED TO CHOOSE AN
ALTERNATE ROUTE...OR SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS
UNAVOIDABLE.
$$

IAZ069-079-080-091-NEZ050>053-067-061100-
BUTLER-CASS-DOUGLAS-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-PAGE-POTTAWATTAMIE-SARPY-
SAUNDERS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELLEVUE...CLARINDA...COUNCIL BLUFFS...
DAVID CITY...GLENWOOD...OMAHA...RED OAK...WAHOO...WEEPING WATER
950 PM CST THU FEB 5 2004

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO 
SOUTHWEST IOWA CONTINUES...AND HAS BEEN EXPANDED SLIGHTLY TO INCLUDE 
BUTLER AND CASS COUNTIES.

LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A 
FEW PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW ALSO POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL SNOW 
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT 
HOURS...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH.  THESE WINDS MAY CAUSE MINOR 
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE FRESHLY FALLEN SNOW.

TRAVEL IS STILL DISCOURAGED TONIGHT.  ROADS WILL REMAIN SNOWPACKED
AND ICY.
$$

CK/BG

AFDOMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR TO TAKE OUT FREMONT COUNTY IN HEADLINE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
930 PM CST THU FEB 5 2004

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TO HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETTING UP AND BISECTING THE CWA IN A
WEST TO EAST FASHION. 00Z ETA 700MB FRONTOGENESIS DEPICTING THIS 
AREA VERY WELL. FOLLOWING THIS AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WOULD 
EXPECT THIS BAND TO SIT RELATIVELY STILL THRU AROUND 06Z AND THEN 
START TO SHIFT SEWD BETWEEN 06Z-09Z. THIS SAID...THINK AREAS SOUTH 
OF ADVISORY AREA WL BE GETTING AN ADDITIONAL 1-3". WL EXTEND 
ADVISORY TO INCLUDE BULTER AND CASS COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER 
OF HEADLINES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE LOOK GOOD AS DEFORMATION 
BAND ACROSS WESTERN NEB MOVES EWD. WL HAVE UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT 
SHORTLY. 
 

GRIFFIS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
310 PM CST THU FEB 5 2004

WILL PREFACE THE DISCUSSION BY SAYING THIS HAS BEEN AN EXTREMELY 
CHALLENGING EVENT...AND CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND PRESENT SHORT TERM 
FORECAST ISSUES.  FOR SAKE OF BREVITY...IN A NUT SHELL WE WILL 
BE CANCELING THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE 
FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AFFECTING THAT AREA. 
WILL CONVERTING THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF EASTERN 
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WHERE 
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWS ARE ESSENTIALLY OVER...AND WILL 
CONTINUE THE WINTER STORM WARNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE 
CWA 
WHERE SNOW WILL PERSIST AND BECAUSE OF THE PROXIMITY TO THE 
DEFORMATION BAND THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ACROSS 
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS...WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE TONIGHT. MY INITIAL 
THOUGHTS LEAD ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE NORTH (THE AREA REMAINING IN 
THE WINTER STORM WATCH) COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES BEFORE 
THE SNOW ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN 
THE ADVISORY AREA COULD BE 1 TO 3 INCHES...WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN 
THIRD OF THE CWA WOULD LIKELY SEE AN INCH OR LESS.

THE SECOND PROBLEM OF THE DAY WILL BE THE WIND POTENTIAL BEHIND THIS 
SYSTEM...MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA (AS MENTIONED EARLIER) LATE 
TONIGHT...THEN OVERSPREADING THE REGION ON FRIDAY. WE FEEL THERE 
WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE 
NORTH...AND TO SOME EXTENT A BIT LOWER ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. 
WHILE THIS WILL CERTAINLY CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING 
SNOW...THERE IS NO NEED TO COMPLICATE THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME BY 
ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR SAID PHENOMENA...AND WILL LIKELY WAIT FOR 
THE EARLY AM FORECAST PACKAGE.

OTHERWISE...THE FINAL CONCERN WILL BE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AS 
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND 
REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES SOUTHWARD.  FEEL THAT BECAUSE OF 
THE RENEWED SNOWPACK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW ZERO FOR MOST 
AREAS WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WINDS BACK AND 
BECOME SOUTHWEST AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...HAVE DECIDED TO UP THE NEXT CHANCE OF 
SNOW TO SUNDAY...LINGERING INTO MONDAY BASED ON NEXT AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. STILL NOT OVERLY 
CONFIDENT WITH THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM...AND FEEL 
THAT SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY SHOULD STILL SUFFICE.  LOOKS LIKE 
TUESDAY WOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ON 
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 
AGAIN...THAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE LARGE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT 
SNOW...MORE OF A NUISANCE AT THIS POINT CONSIDERING WHAT WE'VE BEEN 
THROUGH.

THE SNOW DEPTH RECORD FOR OMAHA WAS BROKEN THIS MORNING ONCE AGAIN 
WITH 24 INCHES ON THE GROUND AT NOON AT EPPLEY ...AND WILL LIKELY 
FLIRT 
WITH THE ALL TIME RECORD OF 27 INCHES BY THE TIME THIS EVENT WINDS 
DOWN.  ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

DEWALD

&&

.OAX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NE...WINTER STORM WARNING NORTH OF A LINE FROM PLATTE TO WASHINGTON 
      COUNTIES THRU 6AM.

      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 
        SAUNDERS...DOUGLAS...SARPY...BUTLER...AND CASS COUNTIES 
 THROUGH 6AM.

.IA...WINTER STORM FOR MONONA...HARRISON AND SHELBY COUNTIES THRU 
6AM.

      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MILLS...MONTGOMERY...AND 
      PAGE COUNTIES THROUGH 6 AM.

&&

$$

GRIFFIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
930 PM CST THU FEB 5 2004

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TO HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETTING UP AND BISECTING THE CWA IN A
WEST TO EAST FASHION. 00Z ETA 700MB FRONTOGENESIS DEPICTING THIS 
AREA VERY WELL. FOLLOWING THIS AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WOULD 
EXPECT THIS BAND TO SIT RELATIVELY STILL THRU AROUND 06Z AND THEN 
START TO SHIFT SEWD BETWEEN 06Z-09Z. THIS SAID...THINK AREAS SOUTH 
OF ADVISORY AREA WL BE GETTING AN ADDITIONAL 1-3". WL EXTEND 
ADVISORY TO INCLUDE BULTER AND CASS COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER 
OF HEADLINES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE LOOK GOOD AS DEFORMATION 
BAND ACROSS WESTERN NEB MOVES EWD. WL HAVE UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT 
SHORTLY. 
 

GRIFFIS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
310 PM CST THU FEB 5 2004

WILL PREFACE THE DISCUSSION BY SAYING THIS HAS BEEN AN EXTREMELY 
CHALLENGING EVENT...AND CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND PRESENT SHORT TERM 
FORECAST ISSUES.  FOR SAKE OF BREVITY...IN A NUT SHELL WE WILL 
BE CANCELING THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE 
FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AFFECTING THAT AREA. 
WILL CONVERTING THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF EASTERN 
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WHERE 
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWS ARE ESSENTIALLY OVER...AND WILL 
CONTINUE THE WINTER STORM WARNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE 
CWA 
WHERE SNOW WILL PERSIST AND BECAUSE OF THE PROXIMITY TO THE 
DEFORMATION BAND THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ACROSS 
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS...WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE TONIGHT. MY INITIAL 
THOUGHTS LEAD ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE NORTH (THE AREA REMAINING IN 
THE WINTER STORM WATCH) COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES BEFORE 
THE SNOW ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN 
THE ADVISORY AREA COULD BE 1 TO 3 INCHES...WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN 
THIRD OF THE CWA WOULD LIKELY SEE AN INCH OR LESS.

THE SECOND PROBLEM OF THE DAY WILL BE THE WIND POTENTIAL BEHIND THIS 
SYSTEM...MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA (AS MENTIONED EARLIER) LATE 
TONIGHT...THEN OVERSPREADING THE REGION ON FRIDAY. WE FEEL THERE 
WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE 
NORTH...AND TO SOME EXTENT A BIT LOWER ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. 
WHILE THIS WILL CERTAINLY CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING 
SNOW...THERE IS NO NEED TO COMPLICATE THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME BY 
ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR SAID PHENOMENA...AND WILL LIKELY WAIT FOR 
THE EARLY AM FORECAST PACKAGE.

OTHERWISE...THE FINAL CONCERN WILL BE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AS 
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND 
REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES SOUTHWARD.  FEEL THAT BECAUSE OF 
THE RENEWED SNOWPACK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW ZERO FOR MOST 
AREAS WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WINDS BACK AND 
BECOME SOUTHWEST AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...HAVE DECIDED TO UP THE NEXT CHANCE OF 
SNOW TO SUNDAY...LINGERING INTO MONDAY BASED ON NEXT AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. STILL NOT OVERLY 
CONFIDENT WITH THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM...AND FEEL 
THAT SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY SHOULD STILL SUFFICE.  LOOKS LIKE 
TUESDAY WOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ON 
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 
AGAIN...THAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE LARGE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT 
SNOW...MORE OF A NUISANCE AT THIS POINT CONSIDERING WHAT WE'VE BEEN 
THROUGH.

THE SNOW DEPTH RECORD FOR OMAHA WAS BROKEN THIS MORNING ONCE AGAIN 
WITH 24 INCHES ON THE GROUND AT NOON AT EPPLEY ...AND WILL LIKELY 
FLIRT 
WITH THE ALL TIME RECORD OF 27 INCHES BY THE TIME THIS EVENT WINDS 
DOWN.  ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

DEWALD

&&

.OAX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NE...WINTER STORM WARNING NORTH OF A LINE FROM PLATTE TO WASHINGTON 
      COUNTIES THRU 6AM.

      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 
        SAUNDERS...DOUGLAS...SARPY...BUTLER...AND CASS COUNTIES 
 THROUGH 6AM.

.IA...WINTER STORM FOR MONONA...HARRISON AND SHELBY COUNTIES THRU 
6AM.

      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MILLS...MONTGOMERY...FREMONT AND 
        PAGE COUNTIES THROUGH 6 AM.

&&

$$

GRIFFIS

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
846 PM CST THU FEB 5 2004

.DISCUSSION...ONLY CHANGE TO THE GRIDS IS TO ADD THE MENTION OF 
BLOWING SNOW...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THINK THAT THE 
DEFORMATION/WRAP-AROUND SNOW AREA WILL BE CONFINED TO POINTS MAINLY 
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VARIOUS SHORT 
TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO POINT TO THIS AS WELL. UPDATED PRODUCTS 
WILL BE OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AFTER THIS MORNINGS SNOWFALL 
SPANKING...ATTN NOW FOCUSED ON DEPARTING UPR SYSTEM AND COLD BUBBLE 
IN ASSOCN/W SFC RIDGE OVR MT THIS AFTN. CAA SURGE LOOKS INTENSE LATE 
TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY AS UPR LOW ACCELERATES EAST TWD GREAT LAKES. 
IMPENDING PROBLEM WILL BE HOW INTENSE NW WINDS BECOME FOR FRIDAY AND 
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW POTENTIAL. ATTM HOURLY BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR 
FRIDAY SHOWING ~ 30KT WINDS WHICH SHLD REALLY GET 6-12 INCHES OF NEW 
POWDER BLOWING BY MID MORNING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SFC FRICTION 
REDUCTION BY LAST 2 SNOWSTORMS AND LITTLE VEGETATION IF ANY TO STOP 
IT. BET HERE IS THAT EAST-WEST ROADS WILL BE IMPASSABLE BY AFTN AS 
THEY BLOW SHUT WITH NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. DECISION OF 
LEAST REGRET AT THIS POINT WOULD BE TO DELAY THAT FOR THE MID 
SHIFT...ESPECIALLY IN RELATION TO EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF SFC CYCLONE 
LIFTING NE OUT OF MS...BUT WORD ACCORDINGLY. 

OTHERWISE...TEMPS GOING NOWHERE TOMORROW W/ENSUING CAA. THERE WILL 
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT AS MID LVL LOW CENTER CONTS SHIFTING E 
AND DEFORMATION SNOWBAND OVR SANDHILLS SWINGS SOUTH BUT 1 INCH OR 
LESS. MORE FRIDAY MORNING W/ARRIVAL OF COLD BUBBLE AND RESIDUAL CYC 
MOISTURE BUT DRYING AND SOME SUBSIDENCE LOOKS TO SCOUR THINGS BY 
SUNSET. THAT ALONG W/DIMINISHING WINDS AND DEEP SNOWPACK SHLD ALLOW 
FOR THE BOTTOM TO FALL OUT GIVEN POSTION OF SFC RIDGE AXIS. GUIDANCE 
NOT EVEN CLOSE AND UNDERCUT SIGNIFICANTLY.

.LONG TERM...12Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK RIDGING MOVING IN 
ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES 
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING WITH A SECONDARY WAVE MOVING SOUTH 
ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES IN EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THE 
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY IS PUSHED ASIDE AS LOW MOVES ACROSS 
LATER SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES SENDS A FRONT 
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND 
THURSDAY. MODELS DO NOT HAVE A HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM YET...AS IN THE 
PAST FEW SYSTEMS. FOR NOW WILL COMPROMISE ON THE MODEL SOLUTION. 

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS SNOW CHANCES EARLY IN THE WEEK. 
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA INCREASES SUNDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH 
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL LET THE CHANCE OF SNOW CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY THEN 
TO KEEP IT GOING WITH LOW POPS THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. 
THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A SLIGHT BREAK IN THERE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT 
HARD TO SAY JUST WHEN. 

BY MIDWEEK THERE IS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA. FOR 
NOW WILL LEAVE DRY BUT HAVE MORE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 
SOMEWHAT MORE MILD WITH THE CLOUDS ACTING AS A BLANKET AT NIGHT. 
DURING THE DAY...THOUGH THERE ARE CLOUDS THERE WILL BE SOME WARM AIR 
MOVING THROUGH. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO THIS IS THAT WITH THE SNOW ON THE 
GROUND THERE MIGHT BE A SHALLOW COLD LAYER AND WARMER AIR ADVECTING 
IN MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR. HAVE KEPT 
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MEX NUMBERS LATER IN THE PERIOD. 

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE
KS...NONE

&&

$$

T/JCB/16

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
310 PM CST THU FEB 5 2004

.DISCUSSION...
WILL PREFACE THE DISCUSSION BY SAYING THIS HAS BEEN AN EXTREMELY 
CHALLENGING EVENT...AND CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND PRESENT SHORT TERM 
FORECAST ISSUES.  FOR SAKE OF BREVITY...IN A NUT SHELL WE WILL 
BE CANCELING THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE 
FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AFFECTING THAT AREA. 
WILL CONVERTING THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF EASTERN 
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WHERE 
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWS ARE ESSENTIALLY OVER...AND WILL 
CONTINE THE WINTER STORM WARNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA 
WHERE SNOW WILL PERSIST AND BECAUSE OF THE PROXIMITY TO THE 
DEFORMATION BAND THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ACROSS 
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS...WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE TONIGHT. MY INITIAL 
THOUGHTS LEAD ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE NORTH (THE AREA REMAINING IN 
THE WINTER STORM WATCH) COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES BEFORE 
THE SNOW ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN 
THE ADVISORY AREA COULD BE 1 TO 3 INCHES...WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN 
THIRD OF THE CWA WOULD LIKELY SEE AN INCH OR LESS.

THE SECOND PROBLEM OF THE DAY WILL BE THE WIND POTENTIAL BEHIND THIS 
SYSTEM...MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA (AS MENTIONED EARLIER) LATE 
TONIGHT...THEN OVERSPREADING THE REGION ON FRIDAY. WE FEEL THERE 
WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE 
NORTH...AND TO SOME EXTENT A BIT LOWER ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. 
WHILE THIS WILL CERTAINLY CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING 
SNOW...THERE IS NO NEED TO COMPLICATE THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME BY 
ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR SAID PHENOMENA...AND WILL LIKELY WAIT FOR 
THE EARLY AM FORECAST PACKAGE.

OTHERWISE...THE FINAL CONCERN WILL BE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AS 
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND 
REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES SOUTHWARD.  FEEL THAT BECAUSE OF 
THE RENEWED SNOWPACK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW ZERO FOR MOST 
AREAS WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WINDS BACK AND 
BECOME SOUTHWEST AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...HAVE DECIDED TO UP THE NEXT CHANCE OF 
SNOW TO SUNDAY...LINGERING INTO MONDAY BASED ON NEXT AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. STILL NOT OVERLY 
CONFIDENT WITH THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM...AND FEEL 
THAT SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY SHOULD STILL SUFFICE.  LOOKS LIKE 
TUESDAY WOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ON 
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 
AGAIN...THAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE LARGE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT 
SNOW...MORE OF A NUISANCE AT THIS POINT CONSIDERING WHAT WE'VE BEEN 
THROUGH.

THE SNOW DEPTH RECORD FOR OMAHA WAS BROKEN THIS MORNING ONCE AGAIN 
WITH 24 INCHES ON THE GROUND AT NOON AT EPPLEY ...AND WILL LIKELY FLIRT 
WITH THE ALL TIME RECORD OF 27 INCHES BY THE TIME THIS EVENT WINDS 
DOWN.  ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.OAX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NE...WINTER STORM WARNING NORTH OF A LINE FROM PLATTE TO WASHINGTON 
      COUNTIES TONIGHT.

      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SAUNDERS...DOUGLAS AND SARPY 
      COUNTIES TONIGHT.

.IA...WINTER STORM FOR MONONA...HARRISON AND SHELBY COUNTIES TONIGHT.

      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MILLS...MONTGOMERY AND PAGE 
      COUNTIES TONIGHT.

&&

$$

DEWALD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
252 PM CST THU FEB 5 2004

...FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES...

THE H7 LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR MCK AT 19Z. -SN IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD 
IN THE FA IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE. SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE AT LBF 
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WRAP AROUND PERSISTS ACROSS MOST OF FA 
THROUGH TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AS FCST BY THE ETA/GFS. 
GOING WINTER WX ADVYS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT AS NEW 
SNOW ACCUM WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS...UP TO 2 INCHES FAR NORTHEAST. 
WINDS SHOULD NOT A BIG CONCERN WITH NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPHS...TO 
CONFINE AREAS OF  BLOWING/DRIFTING TO THE EASTERN FA. 

GFS IS DEEPER AND FASTER WITH UPPER TROUGH IN THE PAC NW AT 36 HRS. 
FROM 36 TO 84 HRS...THE ETA IS MUCH MORE POSITIVELY WITH THE H5 
TROUGH AND AS A RESULT KEEPS QPFS MAINLY TO OUT FAR N/NW. THE GFS 
DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOWS AND PROBABLY GETTING TOO CARRIED AWAY WITH 
QPFS AND ITS CLOSED CIRCULATION. WILL FAVOR THE ETA AND KEEPS POPS A 
LOW 20 UNTIL SOME BETTERED AGREEMENT CAN BE SEEN.

TONIGHT/FRIDAY...WILL CARRY OCNL -SN OVER MUCH OF CWFA TONIGHT TO 
ACCOUNT FOR WRAP AROUND. BY FRIDAY...WILL CARRY MORNING FLURRIES ERN 
THIRD. BLOWING SNOW EAST TONIGHT /FRI AM. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE 
AROUND 10 WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NW TIER.  PRETTY COLD AIR DRAWN 
INTO FA FRIDAY WITH -12C OVER NERN HALF TO -8 FAR SW TO KEEP HIGHS 
MID TEENS NORTHEAST AND UPPER 20S FAR SW. 

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...ARCTIC SFC HIGH CENTERS OVER FA. FRESH SNOW 
COVER WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DIP TO NEAR -8 EAST TO NEAR 0 FAR WEST. 
THIS WILL BE UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES. SFC HIGH 
SLIDES SOUTHEAST AND SRLY WINDS WILL RECIRCULATE AIR BACK NORTHWARD. 
TEMPS SATURDAY WILL MODERATE THOUGH TO LOWER 30S FAR SW TO NEAR 20 
FAR NE. 

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...DUE TO DIFFERING ETA/GFS SOLUTIONS BY 
SUNDAY...WILL FAVOR THE DRIER ETA. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH 
SUNDAY. AIR NOT TOO COLD ONLY AT -6C NORTH. DESCENT NW MIXING WINDS 
SHOULD GET HIGHS TO THE MID/UPPER 20S MOST AREAS AND LOWER 30S FAR 
WEST. 
 

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
00Z/05 GFS SIMILAR TO 00Z/04 RUN WITH H5 SHORTWAVE AMPLIFYING FROM 
SRN MANITOBA INTO MN BY 12Z MON. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN 
INT THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AS YET ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES 
IN TUE/WED. WITH H5 FLOW NRLY...COLDER AIR WILL EASILY SETTLE INTO 
REGION. FIRST INDICATION OF REAL WARMUP BEGIN JUST BEYOND THU AS AN 
EXPANSIVE H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WRN AND CNTRL CONUS. 

WITH EXPANSIVE SNOW COVER OVER THE REGION...WILL KEEP TO THE CURRENT 
FCST TEMPS MON-THU OF MID 20S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 30S EXTREME SW. 

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

KAR

FXUS63 KGID 052045
AFDGRI

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
245 PM CST THU FEB 5 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AFTER THIS MORNINGS SNOWFALL 
SPANKING...ATTN NOW FOCUSED ON DEPARTING UPR SYSTEM AND COLD BUBBLE 
IN ASSOCN/W SFC RIDGE OVR MT THIS AFTN. CAA SURGE LOOKS INTENSE LATE 
TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY AS UPR LOW ACCELERATES EAST TWD GREAT LAKES. 
IMPENDING PROBLEM WILL BE HOW INTENSE NW WINDS BECOME FOR FRIDAY AND 
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW POTENTIAL. ATTM HOURLY BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR 
FRIDAY SHOWING ~ 30KT WINDS WHICH SHLD REALLY GET 6-12 INCHES OF NEW 
POWDER BLOWING BY MID MORNING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SFC FRICTION 
REDUCTION BY LAST 2 SNOWSTORMS AND LITTLE VEGETATION IF ANY TO STOP 
IT. BET HERE IS THAT EAST-WEST ROADS WILL BE IMPASSABLE BY AFTN AS 
THEY BLOW SHUT WITH NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. DECISION OF 
LEAST REGRET AT THIS POINT WOULD BE TO DELAY THAT FOR THE MID 
SHIFT...ESPECIALLY IN RELATION TO EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF SFC CYCLONE 
LIFTING NE OUT OF MS...BUT WORD ACCORDINGLY. 

OTHERWISE...TEMPS GOING NOWHERE TOMORROW W/ENSUING CAA. THERE WILL 
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT AS MID LVL LOW CENTER CONTS SHIFTING E 
AND DEFORMATION SNOWBAND OVR SANDHILLS SWINGS SOUTH BUT 1 INCH OR 
LESS. MORE FRIDAY MORNING W/ARRIVAL OF COLD BUBBLE AND RESIDUAL CYC 
MOISTURE BUT DRYING AND SOME SUBSIDENCE LOOKS TO SCOUR THINGS BY 
SUNSET. THAT ALONG W/DIMINISHING WINDS AND DEEP SNOWPACK SHLD ALLOW 
FOR THE BOTTOM TO FALL OUT GIVEN POSTION OF SFC RIDGE AXIS. GUIDANCE 
NOT EVEN CLOSE AND UNDERCUT SIGNIFICANTLY.

.LONG TERM...12Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK RIDGING MOVING IN 
ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES 
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING WITH A SECONDARY WAVE MOVING SOUTH 
ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES IN EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THE 
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY IS PUSHED ASIDE AS LOW MOVES ACROSS 
LATER SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES SENDS A FRONT 
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND 
THURSDAY. MODELS DO NOT HAVE A HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM YET...AS IN THE 
PAST FEW SYSTEMS. FOR NOW WILL COMPROMISE ON THE MODEL SOLUTION. 

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS SNOW CHANCES EARLY IN THE WEEK. 
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA INCREASES SUNDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH 
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL LET THE CHANCE OF SNOW CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY THEN 
TO KEEP IT GOING WITH LOW POPS THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. 
THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A SLIGHT BREAK IN THERE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT 
HARD TO SAY JUST WHEN. 

BY MIDWEEK THERE IS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA. FOR 
NOW WILL LEAVE DRY BUT HAVE MORE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 
SOMEWHAT MORE MILD WITH THE CLOUDS ACTING AS A BLANKET AT NIGHT. 
DURING THE DAY...THOUGH THERE ARE CLOUDS THERE WILL BE SOME WARM AIR 
MOVING THROUGH. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO THIS IS THAT WITH THE SNOW ON THE 
GROUND THERE MIGHT BE A SHALLOW COLD LAYER AND WARMER AIR ADVECTING 
IN MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR. HAVE KEPT 
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MEX NUMBERS LATER IN THE PERIOD. 

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE
KS...NONE

&&

$$

T/JCB
 



SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1135 AM CST THU FEB 5 2004

.UPDATED...SNOW HAD DECREASED ACROSS THE CWA FOR TIME 
BEING...HOWEVER WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 
80 LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA.  WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW AND LIGHT WINDS AT THIS 
TIME...WILL CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES.

$$
 

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY). 500MB LOW ANALYZED THIS 
EVENING OVER NE CO IS PROGGED TO HEAD EAST AND BE OVER WESTERN IOWA 
BY MIDNIGHT...AND AN END TO THE PERSISTENT SNOWFALL IS FINALLY 
WITHIN SIGHT. EXPECT TRANSIENT BANDS OF SNOW TO CONTINUE LIFTING 
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH THE ENTIRE PRECIPITATION 
AREA SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL 
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS MAINLY 
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 IN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...WITH LESSER 
AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. BEST SNOWFALL LOOKS TO OCCUR PRIMARILY BETWEEN 
NOW AND 10 AM...THOUGH CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY WITH WRAP AROUND...MAINLY TO THE NORTH 
AND EAST. THEREAFTER...KEPT FLURRY MENTION GOING THROUGH ABOUT NOON 
ON FRIDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND UNTIL THEN.  WILL DROP 
WARNING IN FAVOR OF AN ADVISORY WITH WIND BECOMING LESS OF A PROBLEM 
AND ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS NOT LOOKING THAT SIGNIFICANT. 
THEREAFTER...KEPT FLURRY MENTION GOING THROUGH ABOUT NOON ON FRIDAY 
WITH LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND UNTIL THEN.

FINAL PUNCH FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WINDS ON FRIDAY. 850MB WINDS 
PROGGED AT 30 TO 40KTS WILL HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE MIXING DOWN WITH CAA 
AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF DEPARTING UPPER LOW. EXPECT SFC 
WINDS TO EASILY ATTAIN 20-30 MPH...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN 
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF ALREADY FALLEN SNOW.  WILL 
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO AND GIVE A HEADS UP IN THE ADVISORY WSW 
FOR TODAY. 

SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF 
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...RESULTING IN A FAIRLY DECENT DAY. SHOULD BE 
A NICE BREAK AFTER A VERY BUSY WEEK. 

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL 
ZIP ACROSS THE CWFA SUNDAY. MID LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS REASONABLE AND 
THERE IS A DECENT PERIOD OF FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND WARM 
ADVECTION. PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY HAD A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW AND 
THAT WAS CONTINUED...ALBEIT MODIFIED A TOUCH. LEFT THE SNOW CHANCE 
IN FOR MONDAY...BUT DOUBT MOISTURE WILL SUFFICE...AND MAY BECOME 
MORE OF A FLURRY EVENT.

CWFA REMAINS IN NNW FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE 
SOUTH BRINGING CLOUDS AND BRISK WINDS AT TIMES. THOUGH FLURRIES OR 
LIGHT SNOW MAY RESULT BOTH DAYS...EXTREMELY LIGHT NATURE OF ANY 
EVENT IN DAYS 6 AND 7 PRECLUDES ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION. BELOW 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AS COLD AIR IS DISLODGED AND 
SHOVED SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. 

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE
KS...NONE

&&

$$

FAY/VII/MORITZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
915 AM CST THU FEB 5 2004

...ISSUING WINTER STORM WARNING ALL OF OAX CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...

A VARIETY OF FACTORS WARRANT UPGRADING TO WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY 
AND TONIGHT...BUT PRIMARILY THE MAGNITUDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND THE 
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FEEDING UP THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT.  IR AND 
WATERVAPOR LOOP SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE AND MATURE UPPER LOW SPINNING 
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO...MOVING ONLY SLOWLY EAST...WITH WIDE OPEN 
GULF MOISTURE.  IR LOOP IN PARTICULAR SHOWS THE STRENGTHENING 
DEFORMATION ZONE...WHICH IS STILL WELL UPSTREAM OF OUR CWA.  RADAR 
RETURNS AND COOP OBSERVERS INDICATING AT LEAST ONE INCH PER HOUR IN 
SOME LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS 
MORNING.  GARCIA METHOD SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES SUPPORT ABOUT 7 
INCHES OF SNOW IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER 2-3 IN THE 
FOLLOWING 12 HOUR PERIOD. 

WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT AND MOISTURE THROUGH LATE 
AFTERNOON...THEN THE WELL DEVELOPED DEFORMATION ZONE IS EXPECTED TO 
TRACK THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA 
OVERNIGHT...LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES. 

SOME CONCERN FOR THE DRY SLOT TO WORK INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS 
THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...HOWEVER 
EVEN IF THAT OCCURS WE SHOULD STILL SEE THE HIGH SNOWFALL RATES 
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THE DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD CATCH 
THOSE COUNTIES AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. 

WILL UPDATE PRODUCTS ASAP. 

NIETFELD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

315 AM CST THU FEB 5 2004

ONGOING LIGHT SNOW COVERING MOST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AS PER LOCAL
88D PIX. HANDFUL OF REPORTS INDICATE ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS SINCE LAST EVENING. MOISTURE ROBBING CONVECTION OCCURRING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS APPARENTLY
DETERRED OUR AREA FROM RECEIVING PREVIOUSLY THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS OF
6 TO 8 INCHES. STILL...EXPECT JUST LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE THRU NOON
AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST. LIFT VIA
ISENTROPIC WARMING AND DPVA IS PROGGED TO STEADILY DECREASE THRU NOON
AS PER LATEST RUC SOLUTION. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND COORDINATION
WITH OTHER OFFICES...AM INCLINED TO DOWNGRADE HEADLINES TO AN
ADVISORY THRU NOON FOR THE ENTIRE CWA...THEN AT NOON CANCEL THE
ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80.

THIS EVENING...LIGHT DEFORMATION TYPE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES OVERHEAD INTO IOWA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
AT THIS POINT...EXPECT SOME LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-80 WILL RECEIVE 3 TO
5 INCHES BY EVENTS END...WITH 1 TO 3 ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF I-80.

OTHERWISE...LITTLE WEATHER TO BE CONCERNED WITH AS DRY CAA FILTERS
INTO THE PLAINS BEGINNING THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL THRU THE WEEKEND. SLGT CHANCE FOR SNOW
APPEARS MONDAY AS THE MODELS...ALBEIT DISPARATELY SO...SUGGEST
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSING THRU THE PLAINS.

DEE

&&

.OAX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NE...WINTER STORM WARNING ENTIRE CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT. 

.IA...WINTER STORM WARNING ENTIRE CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

$$

DEE
NIETFELD