FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK EXCEPT WL MAKE A FEW ADJ TO SNOW 
ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY NRN ZONES.  SVRL BNDRYS ARND 850 MB WERE 
PROVIDING MESOSCALE FOCUSING AREAS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.  NRN ONE 
WAS OVR SRN NEBR WHERE BEST THERMAL PACKING EXISTED AND THE OTHER 
WAS VCNTY NRN KS INTO NRN MO WITH BTR MSTR...DWPTS ARND 3-4 ABOVE 
ZERO C...TO ITS S.  ESTIMATIONS HERE SO FAR INDICATED AROUND A 20 TO 
1 LIQUID TO SNOW RATIO...AND IF MODELS QPF WOULD VERIFY IT WOULD 
POINT TO SNOW AMOUNTS A LTL MORE THAN CURRENT FCST CNTRL AND S. 
HOWEVER...MODEL QPF AT OMAHA WAS TOO HIGH BY A FACTOR OF 5 FM 12Z 
RUN AND 3 FOR 18Z RUN.  FEEL BEST TO KEEP ACCUMULATIONS WHERE THEY 
ARE CNTRL AND SRN ZONES AND MONITOR SITUATION.  WL UP FAR NERN ZONES 
INTO THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE THOUGH AS LATEST ETA BRINGS 2NDRY PCPN 
MAX INTO NERN NEBR TNGT WITH LIFT OVR NRN BNDRY ARND 850 MB COMBINES 
WITH SHORTWV MOVG THRU CO.  RADAR AND STLT TRENDS SUPPORT THIS.
THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AREAS OF SRN NEBR WHERE LIFT IS 
A LTL LESS UNTIL 850 MB LOW MOVS FAR ENOUGH E TO ALLOW 850 MB WNDS 
TO COME AROUND TO THE NNE.  WL ALSO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO 
TEMPS. 

OMA...WINTER STORM WARNING...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...SE NEB AND SW IA
      GENRLY ALONG AND S OF A SEWARD NEB TO RED OAK IA LINE.
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...TNGT AND MONDAY...NE AND E CNTRL
      NEB AND W CNTRL IA GENRLY N OF A SEWARD NEB TO RED OAK IA LINE. 
CHERMOK

625 
FXUS63 KOAX 110307
AFDOMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
900 PM CST SUN DEC 10 2000

FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK EXCEPT WL MAKE A FEW ADJ TO SNOW 
ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY NRN ZONES.  SVRL BNDRYS ARND 850 MB WERE 
PROVIDING MESOSCALE FOCUSING AREAS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.  NRN ONE 
WAS OVR SRN NEBR WHERE BEST THERMAL PACKING EXISTED AND THE OTHER 
WAS VCNTY NRN KS INTO NRN MO WITH BTR MSTR...DWPTS ARND 3-4 ABOVE 
ZERO C...TO ITS S.  ESTIMATIONS HERE SO FAR INDICATED AROUND A 20 TO 
1 LIQUID TO SNOW RATIO...AND IF MODELS QPF WOULD VERIFY IT WOULD 
POINT TO SNOW AMOUNTS A LTL MORE THAN CURRENT FCST CNTRL AND S. 
HOWEVER...MODEL QPF AT OMAHA WAS TOO HIGH BY A FACTOR OF 5 FM 12Z 
RUN AND 3 FOR 18Z RUN.  FEEL BEST TO KEEP ACCUMULATIONS WHERE THEY 
ARE CNTRL AND SRN ZONES AND MONITOR SITUATION.  WL UP FAR NERN ZONES 
INTO THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE THOUGH AS LATEST ETA BRINGS 2NDRY PCPN 
MAX INTO NERN NEBR TNGT WITH LIFT OVR NRN BNDRY ARND 850 MB COMBINES 
WITH SHORTWV MOVG THRU CO.  RADAR AND STLT TRENDS SUPPORT THIS.
THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AREAS OF SRN NEBR WHERE LIFT IS 
A LTL LESS UNTIL 850 MB LOW MOVS FAR ENOUGH E TO ALLOW 850 MB WNDS 
TO COME AROUND TO THE NNE.  WL ALSO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO 
TEMPS. 

OMA...WINTER STORM WARNING...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...SE NEB AND SW IA
      GENRLY ALONG AND S OF A SEWARD NEB TO RED OAK IA LINE.
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...TNGT AND MONDAY...NE AND E CNTRL
      NEB AND W CNTRL IA GENRLY N OF A SEWARD NEB TO RED OAK IA LINE. 
CHERMOK
 
 
 
 

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
308 PM CST SUN DEC 10 2000

...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INTO MONDAY AND FRIGID
TEMPERATURES...

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING PRIMARILY
ZONAL WEST TO EAST PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...WHILE A SHORTWAVE WAS
DIGGING INTO THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES. SURFACE ANALYSIS
INDICATING ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM WYOMING...INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO...AND THEN FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE WERE NOTED ALONG THE
FRONT IN SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND IN THE RED RIVER OF OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS. MAXIMUM AFTERNOON PRESSURE FALLS WERE OCCURRING IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...WHILE ONGOING LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL WAS NOTED IN THE NORTHERN THIRD OF NEBRASKA.

PREFERRED THE AVN MODEL FROM THE OUTSET THIS MORNING...AS IT DID A
MUCH BETTER JOB OF REPRESENTING THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
DEVELOPMENT/PRESSURE FALLS NOSING INTO THE COLD AIR OF SOUTHWEST
WYOMING.

INITIALLY...SNOWFALL WILL BE PRIMARILY GOVERNED BY DPVA/UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE FROM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AS IT DEVELOPS TONIGHT OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALL WHILE A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW COMING OUT OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY DEVELOPS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ADD-IN TO THE MIX INCREASED LOWER LEVEL
FORCING CONSIDERATIONS...OVERRUNNING AND STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
OVER A STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS A NEW AREA OF SNOW
SHOULD INTENSIFY OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR
SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

NEARLY-IDEAL DENDRITIC CONSIDERATIONS SIGNAL FAVORABLE ICE CRYSTAL
GROWTH OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL SHOULD BE REALIZED AT A GOOD 20 OR 25-TO-1
MOISTURE EQUIVALENT...ANOTHER FACTOR LEADING TO OVERALL THINKING
THAT SOME AREAS SHOULD REACH WARNING CRITERIA.

WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...THINKING IS THAT HEAVIEST SNOW CORRIDOR
WILL FALL ALONG A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED LINE...ROUGHLY
BETWEEN LEXINGTON AND BROKEN BOW...TO GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS...TO
AROUND THE GENEVA AND HEBRON AREAS...WITH THESE LOCATIONS RECEIVING
AS MUCH AS 6 TO 8 INCHES BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE. WHILE SNOW
TOTALS MAY BE MARGINAL FOR A WARNING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...FEELING
IS THAT ADDED AFFECTS OF WIND/WIND CHILLS AND BLOWING SNOW INTO
MONDAY WARRANTS THE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY. GRADUAL CLEARING TO THEN OCCUR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING.
OVERALL...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS OFFICIALLY BEEN THROWN OUT THE
PROVERBIAL WINDOW IN THIS PACKAGE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXPECTATION
OF SNOWFALL AND PROBABLE SNOWPACK.

QUICK LOOK AT THE EXTENDED...ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. AGAIN...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LARGELY GOVERNED BY REALIZED SNOWFALL TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ON WEDNESDAY
AS CUTOFF LOW EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE BAJA AREA...BUT
WILL LET THE ONGOING DRY FORECAST IN NEBRASKA CONTINUE...BECAUSE OF
THE UNCERTAINTY OF SUCH A SYSTEM. NEXT PRECIPITATION THREAT...A
MINIMAL ONE AT THAT...WOULD COME LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT
AGAIN NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THIS PACIFIC SYSTEM.

THANKS FOR COORDINATION OAK...LBF...TOP AND GLD.

.GID...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ENTIRE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS CWA
TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

GUYER

FXUS63 KOAX 102004
AFDOMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
205 PM CST SUN DEC 10 2000

FORECAST PROBLEMS CENTER AROUND ADRESSING ADVERSE WINTER CONDITIONS 
OF SNOW...COLD AND WIND LIKELY TO IMPACT REGION TNGT INTO MONDAY.

AT THIS JUNCTURE TEND TO PREFER ETA MODEL ON HANDLING FEATURES ALOFT 
AND LOWER LEVELS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW ACROSS ROCKIES MOVES INTO 
PLAINS GENERATING LIFT AND OVERRUNNING OF COLD DOME TNGT INTO MON. 
IN PARTICULAR PREFER THE ETA MODEL OVER NGM AND AVN HANDLING OF COLD 
AIR AND THE MORE SRN TRACK OF H85 CIRCULATION FEATURE. ALTHOUGH 
SNOWS LIKELY TO AFFECT ALL OF FCST AREA TNGT INTO MON THIS H85 TRACK 
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PLACES AREAS OF SE NEB 
INTO SW IA MOST AT RISK FOR MORE SGFNT SNOW AMOUNTS. THIS AREA WITH 
HIGHER SNOW WATER EQIVALENT VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR MASS 
COULD SEE SNOW AMOUNTS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 6 INCHES WHICH WOULD 
BE SOMEWHAT ABOVE ESTIMATES OF MODEL QPF OR GARCIA TECHNIQUE. OTHER 
AREA OF SNOW AGAIN HANDLED REASONABLY WELL BY ETA DEVELOPING AND 
MOVING ACROSS N CNTRL NEB AND SRN SD WILL LIKELY IMPACT NRN PTNS OF 
FCST AREA AT LEAST THRU EARLY MRNG HOURS OF MONDAY. IN ADDITIONS 
OTHER CONCERNS WITH SYSTEM CENTER ON WIND AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES 
ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS. WINDS MAY SLACKEN FOR A TIME THIS 
EVEN BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATER TNGT THRU MONDAY WITH A SUURGE OF 
EVEN COLDER AIR FOLLOWING SYSTEM. THE WIND WITH VERY COLD 
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BRING WIND CHILL VALUES TO ADVISORY 
CRITERIA AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY OVER EVEN MORE OF AREA. THE 
WIND WILL ALSO LIKELY CREATE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW. BASED 
ON THESE CONSIDERATIONS FEEL A WINTER STORM WARNING ISSUANCE FOR 
TNGT INTO MONDAY WARRANTED IN SE NEB AND SW IA WITH A WINTER WEATHER 
ADVISORY ELSEWHERE ADDRESSING THE COMBO OF SNOW...WIND CHILL AND 
BLOWING SNOW. BASED ON TSECTS SNOW SHOULD EASE NW CWFA BY NOON AND 
SE IN FIRST PTN OF AFTN. HOWEVER WITH CONTINUES RISK FROM WIND CHILL 
ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL NOT GET TOO 
SWEET AT THIS TIME WITH VALID PERIOD OF HIGHLIGHTS. FOR TEMPS TNGT 
AND MONDAY WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD AVN MOS AND/OR ETA FCST SOUNDINGS

VERY COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AFTER PASSAGE OF SYSTEM 
WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND DIMINISHING WINDS AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS 
INTO PLAINS. LOW TEMPS BY TUE MORNING AROUND 10 BELOW OR COLDER NOT 
OUT OF QUESTION EVEN WITH SOME WIND AND MIXING. TEMPS WILL MODERATE 
SOME ON TUE AS WAA AND THICKNESS INCREASE ON BACKSIDE OF RIDGE. 
HOWEVER FEEL NGM MOS TOO OPTIMISTIC AND LEAN AGAN MORE TOWARD AVN 
MOS AND ETA FCST SOUNDINGS.

CLOUDINESS LIKELY TO INCREASE AGAIN TUE TNIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR 
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING WHICH CONTINUES INTO WED OF EXTENDED 
PERIOD.

OMA...WINTER STORM WARNING...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...SE NEB AND SW IA
      GENLY ALONG AND S OF A SEWARD NEB TO RED OAK IA LINE.
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...TNGT AND MONDAY...NE AND E CNTRL
      NEB AND W CNTRL IA GENLY N OF A SEWARD NEB TO RED OAK IA LINE. 

WIESE
FXUS63 KLBF 101937 COR
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR FOR TYPO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
135 PM CST SUN DEC 10 2000

...CHALLENGE TO BE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND TEMPS...

PREFER AVN/ETA BLEND FOR FORECAST.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT VIA
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NEVADA.  VISIBLE SAT SHOWS WHAT APPEARS
TO BE EAST-WEST CONVECTIVE BAND OF SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN
THIRD OF STATE...MOVING EAST.  MESOETA H8-H7 LAYER FRONTOGENESIS
INDICATED THAT AREA FAVORABLE AT 12Z...THOUGH SHALLOW.  RADAR AND
ROAD REPORTS VERIFIED AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IN THIS BAND.

AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWING UP ON RADAR ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM VTN TO MULLEN TO ARTHUR ASSOCIATED WITH H7 WAA/AND SUBSEQUENT
UVV AHEAD OF H7 TROUGH. THIS AREA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY
AS IT SHIFTS TO SANDHILLS AREA BY 00Z MON. THINK SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE BY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH ISOLATED 6 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY DUE TO HIGH
SNOW TO WATER EQUIVALENT RATIOS AND POSSIBLE DRIFTING. FORECAST WATER
EQ'S OF  .24 PER ETA...YIELDS NEARLY 5 INCHES SNOWFALL. THIS WOULD
MESH UP PRETTY WELL WITH RAP/S 4 TO 7 INCHES PREDICTED JUST NORTH OF
THE STATE LINE.  WILL LIKELY UPGRADE ADVISORY AREA TO WARNING FOR
TONIGHT AND THROW IN A COUPLE MORE COUNTIES IN THE SOUTHWEST END
OF IT WHERE FRONTOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO BE STRONG...AND LEAVE THE
REST OF THE ZONES IN AN ADVISORY TONIGHT WITH 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS
EXPECTED BY 12Z MONDAY.

FWC SURFACE TEMPS INITIALIZED TOO WARM AT 12Z...SO EXPECT TO
UNDERCUT NUMBERS SOME.  WITH SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...CLOUD COVER
WILL BE ONLY SAVING GRACE FOR TEMPS...KEEPING THEM AROUND THE 10
TO 15 BELOW RANGE FOR VTN...5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

MONDAY...AS WINDS IN LOWER LEVELS BACK AROUND TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST...SNOW WILL SHUT OFF BY 12Z IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT EASTERN
FRINGE COUNTIES. CLEARING EXPECTED BY NOON FOR MUCH OF WESTERN CWA...
WITH CLEARING MAKING ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY MORNING...CLEARING SKIES MONDAY...AND LIGHTER WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO BITTERLY COLD READINGS. COLDER
FAN NUMBERS APPEAR MORE REALISTIC...ESPECIALLY WITH SNOW COVER
EXPECTED BY THEN. CIRRUS SHIELD TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY INHIBIT TEMPS
FROM GETTING MUCH ABOVE ZERO IF AT ALL DURING THE DAY.

EXTENDED/WED THRU SUN...PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS.  MAINLY ZONAL FLOW KEEPS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS ZIPPING THROUGH VERY FAST.  AS LONG AS COLD AIR
REMAINS ENTRENCHED...EXPECT SURFACE SYSTEMS TO TRACK ALONG SOUTHERN
EDGE OF COLD AIR KEEPING MAIN WEATHER WELL TO OUR SOUTH. A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND TRIES TO CROSS AREA
FRIDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEB FRIDAY AT
12Z. ECMWF IS MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THIS AT UPPER LEVELS AND
SOMEWHAT SLOWER.  SATURDAY LOOKS PRETTY DRY IF YOU FOLLOW THE
MRF...WHEREAS ECMWF HAS UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL EXITING OUR AREA IN
THE MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY BRINGS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. MRF HAS HUGE LOW DEVELOPING OVER BC BY
12Z SUN WITH TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN LEE SLOPES OF ROCKIES AGAIN. LOW
SYSTEM CURRENTLY PROGGED TO GO FAR ENOUGH NORTH OF OUR ZONES TO NOT
WARRANT A MENTION AT THIS TIME.

.LBF...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT ZONES 004-005-022>025-035-036.
    ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ZONES 006>010-026>029-037-038-
       057>059-069>071.

SLM
 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR FOR HIGHLIGHTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
135 PM CST SUN DEC 10 2000

...CHALLENGE TO BE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND TEMPS...

PREFER AVN/ETC BLEND FOR FORECAST.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT VIA
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NEVADA.  VISIBLE SAT SHOWS WHAT APPEARS
TO BE EAST-WEST CONVECTIVE BAND OF SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN
THIRD OF STATE...MOVING EAST.  MESOETA H8-H7 LAYER FRONTOGENESIS
INDICATED THAT AREA FAVORABLE AT 12Z...THOUGH SHALLOW.  RADAR AND
ROAD REPORTS VERIFIED AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IN THIS BAND.

AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWING UP ON RADAR ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM VTN TO MULLEN TO ARTHUR ASSOCIATED WITH H7 WAA/AND SUBSEQUENT
UVV AHEAD OF H7 TROUGH. THIS AREA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY
AS IT SHIFTS TO SANDHILLS AREA BY 00Z MON. THINK SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE BY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH ISOLATED 6 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY DUE TO HIGH
SNOW TO WATER EQUIVALENT RATIOS AND POSSIBLE DRIFTING. FORECAST WATER
EQ'S OF  .24 PER ETA...YIELDS NEARLY 5 INCHES SNOWFALL. THIS WOULD
MESH UP PRETTY WELL WITH RAP/S 4 TO 7 INCHES PREDICTED JUST NORTH OF
THE STATE LINE.  WILL LIKELY UPGRADE ADVISORY AREA TO WARNING FOR
TONIGHT AND THROW IN A COUPLE MORE COUNTIES IN THE SOUTHWEST END
OF IT WHERE FRONTOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO BE STRONG...AND LEAVE THE
REST OF THE ZONES IN AN ADVISORY TONIGHT WITH 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS
EXPECTED BY 12Z MONDAY.

FWC SURFACE TEMPS INITIALIZED TOO WARM AT 12Z...SO EXPECT TO
UNDERCUT NUMBERS SOME.  WITH SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...CLOUD COVER
WILL BE ONLY SAVING GRACE FOR TEMPS...KEEPING THEM AROUND THE 10
TO 15 BELOW RANGE FOR VTN...5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

MONDAY...AS WINDS IN LOWER LEVELS BACK AROUND TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST...SNOW WILL SHUT OFF BY 12Z IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT EASTERN
FRINGE COUNTIES. CLEARING EXPECTED BY NOON FOR MUCH OF WESTERN CWA...
WITH CLEARING MAKING ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY MORNING...CLEARING SKIES MONDAY...AND LIGHTER WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO BITTERLY COLD READINGS. COLDER
FAN NUMBERS APPEAR MORE REALISTIC...ESPECIALLY WITH SNOW COVER
EXPECTED BY THEN. CIRRUS SHIELD TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY INHIBIT TEMPS
FROM GETTING MUCH ABOVE ZERO IF AT ALL DURING THE DAY.

EXTENDED/WED THRU SUN...PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS.  MAINLY ZONAL FLOW KEEPS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS ZIPPING THROUGH VERY FAST.  AS LONG AS COLD AIR
REMAINS ENTRENCHED...EXPECT SURFACE SYSTEMS TO TRACK ALONG SOUTHERN
EDGE OF COLD AIR KEEPING MAIN WEATHER WELL TO OUR SOUTH. A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND TRIES TO CROSS AREA
FRIDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEB FRIDAY AT
12Z. ECMWF IS MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THIS AT UPPER LEVELS AND
SOMEWHAT SLOWER.  SATURDAY LOOKS PRETTY DRY IF YOU FOLLOW THE
MRF...WHEREAS ECMWF HAS UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL EXITING OUR AREA IN
THE MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY BRINGS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. MRF HAS HUGE LOW DEVELOPING OVER BC BY
12Z SUN WITH TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN LEE SLOPES OF ROCKIES AGAIN. LOW
SYSTEM CURRENTLY PROGGED TO GO FAR ENOUGH NORTH OF OUR ZONES TO NOT
WARRANT A MENTION AT THIS TIME.

.LBF...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT ZONES 004-005-022>025-035-036.
    ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ZONES 006>010-026>029-037-038-
       057>059-069>071.

SLM
FXUS63 KOAX 101810 AMD
AFDOMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1210 PM CST SUN DEC 10 2000

WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR REST OF DAY IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA AS CRITERIA NOT LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO 
BE MET WITH FORECAST WIND SPEEDS AND TEMPERATURES. 

OTHERWISE BASED ON RADARS AND MTRS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE 
TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IN AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MESO ETA FAIRLY 
GOOD WITH THIS TREND. EXPECT AMOUNTS MAINLY AN INCH OR LESS.

AREAS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA APPEAR MOST 
THREATENED TNGT INTO MON FOR SGFNT SNOW AS SHORTWAVE AND OVERRUNNING 
OCCUR OVER COLD DOME. PRELIM FEELINGS LEAN MORE TOWARD ETA MODEL. 
WILL LIKELY HAVE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR TONIGHT AND MON AT A 
MINIMUM WITH POSSIBILITY OF WARNING AREAS OF SE NEB AND SW IA. 

OMA...WINTER STORM WATCH...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...ERN NE AND SWRN IA.

WIESE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR FOR HIGHLIGHTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1123 AM CST SUN DEC 10 2000

WILL BE UPDATING ZONES TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING. RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
CUSTER COUNTY.  PUBLIC REPORTS SAY IT IS ENOUGH TO MAKE
THE GROUND WHITE (AROUND HALF AN INCH.) PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS ON
WINTER STORM HEADLINES...AM SORT OF ON THE FENCE...BUT LEANING
TOWARD ADVISORY FOR MOST AREAS. WARNING CRITERIA MIGHT BE MET IN
CUSTER COUNTY...AND A FEW AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THERE IN THE
FAVORED TRACK FOR SOME HEAVIER SNOW.  MORE DETAILS LATER.

EXTENDED/WED THRU SUN...PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS.  MAINLY ZONAL FLOW KEEPS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS ZIPPING THROUGH VERY FAST.  AS LONG AS COLD AIR
REMAINS ENTRENCHED...EXPECT SURFACE SYSTEMS TO TRACK ALONG SOUTHERN
EDGE OF COLD AIR KEEPING MAIN WEATHER WELL TO OUR SOUTH. STILL A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SOMETIME FRIDAY AS LEE SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND TRIES TO CROSS AREA FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEB FRIDAY AT 12Z.  ECMWF
IS MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THIS AT UPPER LEVELS AND
SOMEWHAT SLOWER.  SATURDAY LOOKS PRETTY DRY IF YOU FOLLOW THE
MRF...WHEREAS ECMWF HAS UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL EXITING OUR AREA IN
THE MORNING. FOR THE MOST PART AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
IN...BEHIND THE LOW THAT TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST. HIGH BRINGS
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. MRF HAS HUGE LOW DEVELOPING OVER BC BY
12Z SUN WITH TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN LEE SLOPES OF ROCKIES AGAIN. LOW
SYSTEM CURRENTLY PROGGED TO GO FAR ENOUGH NORTH OF OUR ZONES TO NOT
WARRANT A MENTION AT THIS TIME.

.LBF...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ZONES 004-005-023>025 THROUGH TONIGHT.
    ...WINTER STORM WATCH ZONES 060>010-022>029-035>038-057>059-
       069>071.

SLM

FXUS63 KLBF 101656
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1056 AM CST SUN DEC 10 2000

WILL BE UPDATING ZONES TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING. RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
CUSTER COUNTY.  PUBLIC REPORTS SAY IT IS ENOUGH TO MAKE
THE GROUND WHITE (AROUND HALF AN INCH.) PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS ON
WINTER STORM HEADLINES...AM SORT OF ON THE FENCE...BUT LEANING
TOWARD ADVISORY FOR MOST AREAS. WARNING CRITERIA MIGHT BE MET IN
CUSTER COUNTY...AND A FEW AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THERE IN THE
FAVORED TRACK FOR SOME HEAVIER SNOW.  MORE DETAILS LATER.

EXTENDED/WED THRU SUN...PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS.  MAINLY ZONAL FLOW KEEPS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS ZIPPING THROUGH VERY FAST.  AS LONG AS COLD AIR
REMAINS ENTRENCHED...EXPECT SURFACE SYSTEMS TO TRACK ALONG SOUTHERN
EDGE OF COLD AIR KEEPING MAIN WEATHER WELL TO OUR SOUTH. STILL A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SOMETIME FRIDAY AS LEE SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND TRIES TO CROSS AREA FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEB FRIDAY AT 12Z.  ECMWF
IS MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THIS AT UPPER LEVELS AND
SOMEWHAT SLOWER.  SATURDAY LOOKS PRETTY DRY IF YOU FOLLOW THE
MRF...WHEREAS ECMWF HAS UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL EXITING OUR AREA IN
THE MORNING. FOR THE MOST PART AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
IN...BEHIND THE LOW THAT TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST. HIGH BRINGS
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. MRF HAS HUGE LOW DEVELOPING OVER BC BY
12Z SUN WITH TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN LEE SLOPES OF ROCKIES AGAIN. LOW
SYSTEM CURRENTLY PROGGED TO GO FAR ENOUGH NORTH OF OUR ZONES TO NOT
WARRANT A MENTION AT THIS TIME.

.LBF...NONE

SLM
FXUS63 KLBF 101421
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
821 AM CST SUN DEC 10 2000

WILL NEED TO ADJUST HIGH TEMPS FOR SOME NORTHERN ZONES WHERE TEMPS
ARE ALREADY SUB-ZERO AND NOT LIKELY TO GO ANYWHERE. LAMP DATA
INDICATES NEARLY STEADY TEMPS AROUND ZERO FOR VTN AND ANW TODAY...
SO WILL ADJUST ACCORDINGLY.  WIND CHILLS SO FAR ARE IN THE -15 TO
-20 RANGE...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOME PER MESOETA.

FYI...WE ARE HAVING SOME RADAR PROBLEMS OF UNKNOWN ORIGIN.
HOPEFULLY IT WILL BE BACK UP MOMENTARILY AFTER WE ATTEMPT TO
COMPLETE AN RPG REBOOT.

.LBF...NONE

SLM

FXUS63 KLBF 101008
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
408 AM CST SAT DEC 9 2000

...FCST CHALLENGE IS SNOW POTENTIAL MAINLY INTO MONDAY...

ARCTIC FRONT HAS ROARED THROUGH CWFA WITH 20 DEG TEMP DROP IN 2 HRS 
AT KLBF. AT 09Z WAS ALONG KS/NEB BORDER. TRENDS ON REGIONAL SURFACE 
OBS AND 06Z ETA INDICATE STRONG WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONTAL 
SURGE WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AND REMOVE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS 
CURRENTLY OVER N CENTRAL ZONES.

ETA AND AVN HAD GOOD HANDLE ON SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION AT 06Z. 
LATER...AVN IS SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH H5 SHORTWAVE ROTATING 
AROUND HUDSON BAY VORTEX SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT 09Z MOVING 
INTO SRN ID. AVN TRACKS H5 VORT MAX OVER SW NEB AT 18Z MON WHILE ETA 
IS A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES S IN SW KS. WENT WITH A COMPROMISE AND 
TONE BACK ON STRONGER AVN DYNAMICS AND LESS QPF INDICATED BY ETA.

DO NOT EXPECT MUCH RISE IN TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR 
ADVECTION AND COLD COVER AND WILL MAKE LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS TO 
WORDING AFTER SEEING 10Z OBS. WILL LEAVE IN POST FRONTAL FLURRIES 
AND THEN SCATTERED AFTN POPS AS WINDS AT H850 BEGIN TO BACK AND 
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES TOWARD EVENING. QG FORCING AND WEAK DIVERGENCE
AT H3 DEVELOP IN NRN PANHANDLE AND N CENTRAL ZONES TOWARD EVENING 
AND THINK SNOW SHOULD GET GOING THERE BY LATE AFTERNOON. JET STREAM 
COUPLET PRODUCES STRONG DIVERGENCE OVER W CENTRAL AND SW BETWEEN 06Z 
AND 12Z...WHILE STRONG FORCING INDICATED BY Q-G FIELDS AT THE SAME 
TIME SHIFTING TO EASTERN NEB BY 12Z. THIS ALONG WITH CONDENSATION 
PRESSURE DEF IN H7-H850 LAYER POINT TOWARD GREATEST SNOWFALL 
POTENTIAL ALONG AXIS FROM KVTN-KAIA. HAVE UPGRADED WATCH TO WINTER 
WEATHER ADVISORY IN SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTY GROUPINGS FOR 
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT DUE TO COLD WIND CHILLS AND BLOWING SNOW 
POTENTIAL. WILL LET REMAINING WATCH FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY BE 
ASSESSED BY DAY SHIFT. ALSO LEFT IN SNOW AMOUNTS ALREADY INTRODUCED 
IN SATURDAY PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH THINKING AT THIS TIME IS THAT THEY 
MAY BE ON HIGH SIDE. ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW STRONG SURFACE 
WINDS WILL BE FOR BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL. AVN POINTS TOWARD 15 TO 25 
REDEVELOPING TONIGHT...WHILE 06Z ETA BACKS WINDS OFF SOME AND MAY 
NOT SEE AS MUCH BLOWING SNOW. COORD WITH RAP AND CYS. 

AFTER QUICK LOOK AT NEW MRF AND AVN...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS 
EXTENDED. NEXT SHORTWAVE FOR TUESDAY IS WEAKER AND TRACKS FARTHER SW 
AND HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SNOW TUE AND WED. TEMPS ALSO LOOKED TOO 
COLD AND ADJUSTED UPWARD A BIT...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS GUIDANCE. 

.LBF...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS AFTN AND TON NRN PANHANDLE AND N 
CNTRL...NEZ004-005-023>025. WINTER STORM WATCH TONIGHT REMAINDER 
CWFA...NEZ006>010-022-026>029-035>038-056>059-069>071.

SHEETS

FXUS63 KOAX 100927
AFDOMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
330 AM CST SUN DEC 10 2000

MAIN FOCI WILL BE THE COLD AIR AND AMOUNT OF SNOW.  SURFACE ANALYSIS 
AT 09Z SHOWED ARCTIC CDFNT SURGING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
PRESSURE RISES OF GREATER THAN 6 MB IN 3 HOURS NOTED JUST BEHIND THE 
FRONT ALONG WITH WINDS GUSTING TO OVER 30 KTS FOR A WHILE.  SOME -SN
WAS ALSO OCCURRING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FNT.  WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE AREA.  WILL GO WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTH.  IN THE SOUTH OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SNOW THIS MORNING AND A FAIRLY HIGH POP THIS AFTERNOON.   SOME -FZDZ 
POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE MAJOR PROBLEMS.  AVN AND NGM MOS VALUES ARE NOT OF MUCH USE IN 
THE SHORT TERM.  CURRENT READINGS RANGED FROM SINGLE DIGITS NEAR THE 
SD BORDER TO LOWER 30S IN SWRN IA.  RUC AT 06Z MESO ETA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURE VALUES ARE BETTER...BUT EVEN THESE MAY BE A LITTLE ON
THE WARM SIDE.  EXPECT ALL OF THE CWA TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BY LATE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH.  WIND CHILLS
SHOULD MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER NRN ZONES AND WILL ISSUE AN ADVY
FOR THOSE.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES...BUT AS 
USUAL DIFFER IN THE DETAILS AND QPF.  WILL KEEP WINTER STORM WATCH
GOING FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY...DUE TO COMBINATION OF SNOW...BITTER 
COLD WIND CHILLS AND POSSIBLE BLOWING SNOW.  NOT REALLY FIRED UP 
ABOUT ANY HEAVY SNOW AT THIS TIME.  SURFACE WIND DOES DROP OFF LATER
TODAY AND FOR TONIGHT AS 850 MB FRONT TRIES TO LIFT BACK NORTH AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES.  MIXING RATIO VALUES IN THE 800 TO 700 MB
LAYER ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2-3 G/KG THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT AND THEN DROP 
OFF.  WIND INCREASES AGAIN ON MONDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AND SURFACE LOW TRACKS NEWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  TEMPERATURES 
SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE WEEK.  FIRST DRAFT OF THE WORK ZONES WAS 
JUST SENT.

.OMA...WIND CHILL ADVY TODAY...NORTH OF A LINE FROM KOLU TO KHNR.
       WINTER STORM WATCH...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...ERN NE AND SWRN IA.

MILLER

609 
FXUS63 KOAX 102004
AFDOMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
205 PM CST SUN DEC 10 2000

FORECAST PROBLEMS CENTER AROUND ADRESSING ADVERSE WINTER CONDITIONS 
OF SNOW...COLD AND WIND LIKELY TO IMPACT REGION TNGT INTO MONDAY.

AT THIS JUNCTURE TEND TO PREFER ETA MODEL ON HANDLING FEATURES ALOFT 
AND LOWER LEVELS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW ACROSS ROCKIES MOVES INTO 
PLAINS GENERATING LIFT AND OVERRUNNING OF COLD DOME TNGT INTO MON. 
IN PARTICULAR PREFER THE ETA MODEL OVER NGM AND AVN HANDLING OF COLD 
AIR AND THE MORE SRN TRACK OF H85 CIRCULATION FEATURE. ALTHOUGH 
SNOWS LIKELY TO AFFECT ALL OF FCST AREA TNGT INTO MON THIS H85 TRACK 
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PLACES AREAS OF SE NEB 
INTO SW IA MOST AT RISK FOR MORE SGFNT SNOW AMOUNTS. THIS AREA WITH 
HIGHER SNOW WATER EQIVALENT VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR MASS 
COULD SEE SNOW AMOUNTS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 6 INCHES WHICH WOULD 
BE SOMEWHAT ABOVE ESTIMATES OF MODEL QPF OR GARCIA TECHNIQUE. OTHER 
AREA OF SNOW AGAIN HANDLED REASONABLY WELL BY ETA DEVELOPING AND 
MOVING ACROSS N CNTRL NEB AND SRN SD WILL LIKELY IMPACT NRN PTNS OF 
FCST AREA AT LEAST THRU EARLY MRNG HOURS OF MONDAY. IN ADDITIONS 
OTHER CONCERNS WITH SYSTEM CENTER ON WIND AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES 
ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS. WINDS MAY SLACKEN FOR A TIME THIS 
EVEN BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATER TNGT THRU MONDAY WITH A SUURGE OF 
EVEN COLDER AIR FOLLOWING SYSTEM. THE WIND WITH VERY COLD 
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BRING WIND CHILL VALUES TO ADVISORY 
CRITERIA AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY OVER EVEN MORE OF AREA. THE 
WIND WILL ALSO LIKELY CREATE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW. BASED 
ON THESE CONSIDERATIONS FEEL A WINTER STORM WARNING ISSUANCE FOR 
TNGT INTO MONDAY WARRANTED IN SE NEB AND SW IA WITH A WINTER WEATHER 
ADVISORY ELSEWHERE ADDRESSING THE COMBO OF SNOW...WIND CHILL AND 
BLOWING SNOW. BASED ON TSECTS SNOW SHOULD EASE NW CWFA BY NOON AND 
SE IN FIRST PTN OF AFTN. HOWEVER WITH CONTINUES RISK FROM WIND CHILL 
ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL NOT GET TOO 
SWEET AT THIS TIME WITH VALID PERIOD OF HIGHLIGHTS. FOR TEMPS TNGT 
AND MONDAY WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD AVN MOS AND/OR ETA FCST SOUNDINGS

VERY COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AFTER PASSAGE OF SYSTEM 
WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND DIMINISHING WINDS AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS 
INTO PLAINS. LOW TEMPS BY TUE MORNING AROUND 10 BELOW OR COLDER NOT 
OUT OF QUESTION EVEN WITH SOME WIND AND MIXING. TEMPS WILL MODERATE 
SOME ON TUE AS WAA AND THICKNESS INCREASE ON BACKSIDE OF RIDGE. 
HOWEVER FEEL NGM MOS TOO OPTIMISTIC AND LEAN AGAN MORE TOWARD AVN 
MOS AND ETA FCST SOUNDINGS.

CLOUDINESS LIKELY TO INCREASE AGAIN TUE TNIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR 
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING WHICH CONTINUES INTO WED OF EXTENDED 
PERIOD.

OMA...WINTER STORM WARNING...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...SE NEB AND SW IA
      GENLY ALONG AND S OF A SEWARD NEB TO RED OAK IA LINE.
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...TNGT AND MONDAY...NE AND E CNTRL
      NEB AND W CNTRL IA GENLY N OF A SEWARD NEB TO RED OAK IA LINE. 

WIESE

720 
FXUS63 KOAX 102004
AFDOMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
205 PM CST SUN DEC 10 2000

FORECAST PROBLEMS CENTER AROUND ADRESSING ADVERSE WINTER CONDITIONS 
OF SNOW...COLD AND WIND LIKELY TO IMPACT REGION TNGT INTO MONDAY.

AT THIS JUNCTURE TEND TO PREFER ETA MODEL ON HANDLING FEATURES ALOFT 
AND LOWER LEVELS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW ACROSS ROCKIES MOVES INTO 
PLAINS GENERATING LIFT AND OVERRUNNING OF COLD DOME TNGT INTO MON. 
IN PARTICULAR PREFER THE ETA MODEL OVER NGM AND AVN HANDLING OF COLD 
AIR AND THE MORE SRN TRACK OF H85 CIRCULATION FEATURE. ALTHOUGH 
SNOWS LIKELY TO AFFECT ALL OF FCST AREA TNGT INTO MON THIS H85 TRACK 
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PLACES AREAS OF SE NEB 
INTO SW IA MOST AT RISK FOR MORE SGFNT SNOW AMOUNTS. THIS AREA WITH 
HIGHER SNOW WATER EQIVALENT VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR MASS 
COULD SEE SNOW AMOUNTS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 6 INCHES WHICH WOULD 
BE SOMEWHAT ABOVE ESTIMATES OF MODEL QPF OR GARCIA TECHNIQUE. OTHER 
AREA OF SNOW AGAIN HANDLED REASONABLY WELL BY ETA DEVELOPING AND 
MOVING ACROSS N CNTRL NEB AND SRN SD WILL LIKELY IMPACT NRN PTNS OF 
FCST AREA AT LEAST THRU EARLY MRNG HOURS OF MONDAY. IN ADDITIONS 
OTHER CONCERNS WITH SYSTEM CENTER ON WIND AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES 
ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS. WINDS MAY SLACKEN FOR A TIME THIS 
EVEN BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATER TNGT THRU MONDAY WITH A SUURGE OF 
EVEN COLDER AIR FOLLOWING SYSTEM. THE WIND WITH VERY COLD 
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BRING WIND CHILL VALUES TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY OVER EVEN MORE OF AREA. THE 
WIND WILL ALSO LIKELY CREATE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW. BASED 
ON THESE CONSIDERATIONS FEEL A WINTER STORM WARNING ISSUANCE FOR 
TNGT INTO MONDAY WARRANTED IN SE NEB AND SW IA WITH A WINTER WEATHER 
ADVISORY ELSEWHERE ADDRESSING THE COMBO OF SNOW...WIND CHILL AND 
BLOWING SNOW. BASED ON TSECTS SNOW SHOULD EASE NW CWFA BY NOON AND 
SE IN FIRST PTN OF AFTN. HOWEVER WITH CONTINUES RISK FROM WIND CHILL 
ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL NOT GET TOO 
SWEET AT THIS TIME WITH VALID PERIOD OF HIGHLIGHTS. FOR TEMPS TNGT 
AND MONDAY WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD AVN MOS AND/OR ETA FCST SOUNDINGS

VERY COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AFTER PASSAGE OF SYSTEM 
WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND DIMINISHING WINDS AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS 
INTO PLAINS. LOW TEMPS BY TUE MORNING AROUND 10 BELOW OR COLDER NOT 
OUT OF QUESTION EVEN WITH SOME WIND AND MIXING. TEMPS WILL MODERATE 
SOME ON TUE AS WAA AND THICKNESS INCREASE ON BACKSIDE OF RIDGE. 
HOWEVER FEEL NGM MOS TOO OPTIMISTIC AND LEAN AGAN MORE TOWARD AVN 
MOS AND ETA FCST SOUNDINGS.

CLOUDINESS LIKELY TO INCREASE AGAIN TUE TNIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR 
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING WHICH CONTINUES INTO WED OF EXTENDED 
PERIOD.

OMA...WINTER STORM WARNING...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...SE NEB AND SW IA
      GENLY ALONG AND S OF A SEWARD NEB TO RED OAK IA LINE.
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...TNGT AND MONDAY...NE AND E CNTRL
      NEB AND W CNTRL IA GENLY N OF A SEWARD NEB TO RED OAK IA LINE. 

WIESE

STATE FORECAST FOR NEBRASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
450 PM CST SUN DEC 10 2000

...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINDER OF THE STATE TONIGHT AND MOST
AREAS ON MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...OCCASIONAL SNOW MOST AREAS...WITH HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE.
VERY COLD AND BLUSTERY WITH AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  LOWS
5 BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO MOST AREAS...EXCEPT 10 BELOW NORTHWEST.
.MONDAY...VERY WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD.  SNOW CENTRAL AND EAST...
DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON.  FLURRIES IN THE
PANHANDLE.  BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  HIGHS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE ZERO.
.MONDAY NIGHT...VERY COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO
NORTH CENTRAL...TO 5 TO 10 BELOW SOUTHEAST.  PARTLY CLOUDY.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY.  HIGHS FROM 5 TO 15.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE FOR SNOW EAST...OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY.
LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.WEDNESDAY...A CHANCE FOR SNOW FAR SOUTHWEST...AND EASTERN THIRD. DRY
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS 10 TO 20.
.THURSDAY...MAINLY DRY...EXCEPT A CHANCE FOR SNOW SOUTHWEST.  LOWS
ZERO TO 10 ABOVE.  HIGHS 15 TO 25...EXCEPT 30S PANHANDLE.
.FRIDAY...NOT AS COLD.  A CHANCE FOR SNOW EAST AND NORTH CENTRAL...
OTHERWISE DRY.  LOWS 10 TO 20...EXCEPT ZERO TO 10 ABOVE
NORTH CENTRAL.  HIGHS 40 TO 45 PANHANDLE...20S CENTRAL AND 30S EAST.


FPUS63 KOAX 101703 AMD
SFPNE 
NEZ001>093-102245-

STATE FORECAST FOR NEBRASKA...AMENDED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1050 AM CST SUN DEC 10 2000

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY TODAY NORTHEAST...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT NORTH CENTRAL...
...WINTER STORM WATCH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT PANHANDLE...
...WINTER STORM WATCH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY CENTRAL AND EAST...

.TODAY...VERY COLD WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
BLUSTERY WITH THE TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND ZERO NORTH TO AROUND
10 ABOVE SOUTH.
.TONIGHT...OCCASIONAL SNOW MOST AREAS. VERY COLD AND BLUSTERY WITH
AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. LOWS 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE
ZERO MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH NEAR 10 ABOVE FAR SOUTHWEST.
.MONDAY...VERY COLD WITH LIGHT SNOW IN THE PANHANDLE. SNOW CENTRAL
AND EAST...DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON. BLUSTERY WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES
MOST AREAS...BUT 6 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. HIGHS
ZERO TO 10 ABOVE ZERO.
.MONDAY NIGHT...VERY COLD WITH LOWS FROM 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO. LIGHT
SNOW LIKELY PANHANDLE. PARTLY CLOUDY REST OF THE STATE.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.TUESDAY...VERY COLD WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW PANHANDLE AND FAR
SOUTHWEST. FLURRIES POSSIBLE EAST. MAINLY DRY CENTRAL. HIGHS ZERO
TO 15 ABOVE.
.WEDNESDAY...VERY COLD WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW PANHANDLE AND EASTERN
THIRD. DRY ELSEWHERE. LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO. HIGHS 10 TO 20.
.THURSDAY...A CHANCE FOR SNOW FAR SOUTHWEST AND FLURRIES EASTERN
AREAS. DRY ELSEWHERE. LOWS RANGING FROM 5 BELOW NORTH CENTRAL TO
5 TO 10 ABOVE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS 10 TO 20...WITH 20S IN THE PANHANDLE
AND FAR SOUTHWEST.
 

STATE FORECAST FOR NEBRASKA...AMENDED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1050 AM CST SUN DEC 10 2000

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY TODAY NORTHEAST...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT NORTH CENTRAL...
...WINTER STORM WATCH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT PANHANDLE...
...WINTER STORM WATCH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY CENTRAL AND EAST...

.TODAY...VERY COLD WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
BLUSTERY WITH THE TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND ZERO NORTH TO AROUND
10 ABOVE SOUTH.
.TONIGHT...OCCASIONAL SNOW MOST AREAS. VERY COLD AND BLUSTERY WITH
AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. LOWS 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE
ZERO MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH NEAR 10 ABOVE FAR SOUTHWEST.
.MONDAY...VERY COLD WITH LIGHT SNOW IN THE PANHANDLE. SNOW CENTRAL
AND EAST...DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON. BLUSTERY WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES
MOST AREAS...BUT 6 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. HIGHS
ZERO TO 10 ABOVE ZERO.
.MONDAY NIGHT...VERY COLD WITH LOWS FROM 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO. LIGHT
SNOW LIKELY PANHANDLE. PARTLY CLOUDY REST OF THE STATE.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.TUESDAY...VERY COLD WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW PANHANDLE AND FAR
SOUTHWEST. FLURRIES POSSIBLE EAST. MAINLY DRY CENTRAL. HIGHS ZERO
TO 15 ABOVE.
.WEDNESDAY...VERY COLD WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW PANHANDLE AND EASTERN
THIRD. DRY ELSEWHERE. LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO. HIGHS 10 TO 20.
.THURSDAY...A CHANCE FOR SNOW FAR SOUTHWEST AND FLURRIES EASTERN
AREAS. DRY ELSEWHERE. LOWS RANGING FROM 5 BELOW NORTH CENTRAL TO
5 TO 10 ABOVE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS 10 TO 20...WITH 20S IN THE PANHANDLE
AND FAR SOUTHWEST.

STATE FORECAST FOR NEBRASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
455 AM CST SUN DEC 10 2000

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY TODAY NORTHEAST...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT NORTH CENTRAL...
...WINTER STORM WATCH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT PANHANDLE...
...WINTER STORM WATCH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY CENTRAL AND EAST...

.TODAY...VERY COLD WITH PERIODS OF SNOW PANHANDLE. SNOW DEVELOPING
NORTH CENTRAL. A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ELSEWHERE. FREEZING DRIZZLE
IS POSSIBLE FAR SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. BLUSTERY WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH...AND FALLING TO 5 TO 15 ABOVE ELSEWHERE.
.TONIGHT...OCCASIONAL SNOW MOST AREAS. VERY COLD AND BLUSTERY WITH
AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. LOWS 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE
ZERO MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH NEAR 10 ABOVE FAR SOUTHWEST.
.MONDAY...VERY COLD WITH LIGHT SNOW IN THE PANHANDLE. SNOW CENTRAL
AND EAST...DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON. BLUSTERY WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES
MOST AREAS...BUT 6 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. HIGHS
ZERO TO 10 ABOVE ZERO.
.MONDAY NIGHT...VERY COLD WITH LOWS FROM 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO. LIGHT
SNOW LIKELY PANHANDLE. PARTLY CLOUDY REST OF THE STATE.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.TUESDAY...VERY COLD WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW PANHANDLE AND FAR
SOUTHWEST. FLURRIES POSSIBLE EAST. MAINLY DRY CENTRAL. HIGHS ZERO
TO 15 ABOVE.
.WEDNESDAY...VERY COLD WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW PANHANDLE AND EASTERN
THIRD. DRY ELSEWHERE. LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO. HIGHS 10 TO 20.
.THURSDAY...A CHANCE FOR SNOW FAR SOUTHWEST AND FLURRIES EASTERN
AREAS. DRY ELSEWHERE. LOWS RANGING FROM 5 BELOW NORTH CENTRAL TO
5 TO 10 ABOVE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS 10 TO 20...WITH 20S IN THE PANHANDLE
AND FAR SOUTHWEST.

$$ MORITZ