AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH ERN NEB THROUGH MUCH OF CNTRL KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

   VALID 061712Z - 061915Z

   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL NEB
   SWD THROUGH CNTRL KS BETWEEN 19 AND 21Z. ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES
   APPEAR LIKELY INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS. THREATS WILL
   INCLUDE LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL
   ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
   OF THESE AREAS BY 18Z.

   EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW IN E CNTRL
   NEB SWWD THROUGH W CNTRL KS THEN SWD AS A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT
   THROUGH WRN OK AND THE ERN PORTION OF WRN TX. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A
   LOBE OF VORTICITY AND ACCOMPANYING UPPER JET ADVANCING ENEWD THROUGH
   WRN KS AND WRN NEB. ASCENT AND HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
   FEATURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OVER N CNTRL KS
   THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS ALREADY SHOWS PRESSURE FALLS
   ACROSS CNTRL THROUGH SWRN KS. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS...THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER NEB SHOULD BECOME MORE ELY WITH SOME WWD
   RETREAT OF THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STRONG SURFACE
   HEATING...ASCENT...AND EWD ADVANCE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND STEEPER
   LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FROM CNTRL
   THROUGH ERN NEB SWD THROUGH CNTRL KS WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 
   J/KG LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL KS ARE PROBABLY INDICATIVE OF THE LEADING
   EDGE OF ASCENT SPREADING EWD. AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO
   DESTABILIZE AND HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREAD EWD...STORMS
   SHOULD DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF FRONT/DRYLINE FROM CNTRL NEB SWD
   THROUGH CNTRL KS AND SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD NEWD. DEEP LAYER AND LOW
   LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE UPPER JET ADVANCES EWD
   AND AS SECONDARY BRANCH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES ACROSS
   KS/ERN NEB IN RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS.

   PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1224 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006

   ...AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND
   TORNADOES IS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT...

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER
   PARTS OF THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
   THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

   THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

          EASTERN KANSAS
          FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI
          SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA

   SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA...CENTRAL KANSAS...THROUGH
   WESTERN MISSOURI...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS

   A STRONG STORM SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE
   EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...REACHING THE
   MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH BY THIS EVENING. A SURFACE LOW
   PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.  TO
   THE SOUTH OF THE LOW...A DRYLINE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD
   INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE STRONG
   WESTERLY WINDS ATOP THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE
   FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. 

   STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE OZARKS AND MID  MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE INITIAL STORMS WILL
   BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. 

   ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL TAKE PLACE IN TWO MAIN
   AREAS. ONE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM
   CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS FAR SOUTH AS TEXAS BETWEEN 100-400 PM CDT. VERY
   LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
   THESE STORMS.  THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES SHOULD
   EXIST ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK IN NEBRASKA. 

   A SECONDARY AREA OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS
   CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.
   THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE
   DRYLINE...AND ALONG THE NOSE OF THE STRONG JET STREAM ALOFT. THESE
   STORMS WILL TEND TO REMAIN AS DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORMS AS THEY MOVE
   INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHERN/WESTERN PARTS OF ARKANSAS
   DURING THE EVENING.  STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
   VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
   LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
   MID-SOUTH.

   THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE
   THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND
   TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR
   POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

   ..TAYLOR/THOMPSON.. 04/06/2006